China’s Objection Signifies The Importance Of Indo-US Nuclear Deal

During his visit to China in January this year, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was given assurance by high-ranking Chinese leaders that it would back India’s case at the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) meeting. However, China came out as one of the major opponents of the proposed nuclear deal which, now, gives India an opportunity to trade in civilian nuclear technology something it wasn’t entitled to for the last 33 years.

Indian government claims that it was disappointed by the last-minute change in stance by the Chinese but it is hard to believe that the Indians wouldn’t have expected such a move. This very move shows how important this deal is and why the US administration is so keen to see it through even as some think of it as a one-sided affair, with India getting much more than it is giving back. 

When first announced the deal was ‘gift wrapped’ in order to project it as a dividend for India’s clean record as far as nuclear proliferation is concerned and President Bush went one step ahead claiming that the deal would eventually help reduce the carbon emissions as the trade of nuclear technology would help India move to nuclear power plants from coal fired plants.

Political Drama In India Nears Its Climax

After nearly an year since the terms of the Indo-US nuclear deal were concluded the Indian government will be facing a no-confidence motion on 22nd July. The Indian Prime Minister was forced to prove his government’s majority in the Parliament after the Left parties withdrew their support to the government on 9th July. The Left parties are of the opinion that the deal would undermine India’s freedom to take crucial foreign policy decisions which includes the decision on Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.

The current political scenario is like a puzzle whose solution evades everyone; most aren’t even sure about the number of votes the government requires to stay in power – 271 or 272 – it’s just a single vote that can change the fortunes of the government and potentially the future of the country. Each and every single MP is invaluable and thats forcing the government – and the opposition – to fix a ‘rate’ for the MPs – the fence sitters. Small parties with even one MP or independents who hardly make their presence felt during the business of the Parliament will decide on Tuesday whether the government stays or falls.

How India Can Use The Nuclear Deal To Its Advantage

As the Congress struggles to hold on to power it is surprising to see how little it has done to take the deal to the common people. Even those who support the deal accuse the government of being lethargic in putting the features of the deal in front of the Indian public. A Gallup poll recently found that a big majority of the Indians have no clue what the nuclear deal is about. One has to wonder what’s stopping the government. Could it be the fear of backlash from the public which is seething under the load of record inflation or is there something more to it.

It was only during the recent public rallies that the Congress leaders started associating the deal with the Aam aadmi (common man) emphasizing on the prospects of cheap electricity. But power generation is merely a small flower in the strategic and technological bouquet that the nuclear deal is. No doubt that the US administration has given away ‘too much’ in this deal. But by intelligently formulating the energy and foreign policies India can get even more than what the US is offering.

Rising Inflation, Nuclear Deal Bring India To The Brink Of Early Elections

The UPA government is finding it difficult to complete its full term as failure to close the nuclear deal and skyrocketing inflation are slowly eating up the Congress-led government. To seal or not to seal the nuclear deal has even created rifts in the party itself and as the leaders ponder if the party would be able to form the next government it is running out coalition partners.

According to the provisional figures the inflation touched a 13-year high of 11.05% for the week ending June 7. A survey done by a leading business news channel had expected the figure to be close to 9.40% hence the 500 point plunge in the equity markets didn’t come as a surprise. The biggest factor contributing to the double-digit inflation is the fuel price hike which alone contributed 95 basis points to the inflation rate. The Left coalition parties have since the beginning strongly opposed any fuel price hike so understandably they didn’t shy away in blasting the government policies on Friday afternoon as soon as the Reserve Bank came out with the weekly figures.

Communist Part of India (Marxist) General Secretary Prakash Karat blasted the government over the rising inflation. When a journalist asked him about the steps which should be taken to bring down the inflation he quickly replied, with harsh sarcasm, that the government should further increase the prices of petrol & diesel.

US Must Include Option Of Testing In Nuclear Deal With India

Recently the leader of opposition in India, Mr. Lal Krishan Advani, said that his party was ready to support the nuclear deal provided that India is exempted from the obligations of the Hyde Act which presently requires India to shun all kinds of nuclear testing in order to be eligible for nuclear fuel. Although the US officials, including Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice have stated that the deal will not be renegotiated under any circumstances it is in America’s best interests that it allows India to flex its nuclear muscle.

US needs to counter the rising Chinese military might and for that it needs loyal allies like India. CIA often reports about massive increments in China’s defense budget and recently a secret nuclear submarine base was detected through high resolution satellite images. The rumors that such a naval base was under construction were down the rounds as early as 2001 when the Americans sent an EP-3 electronic reconnaissance aircraft to verify those rumors. Subsequently when it was found that the Chinese indeed had an underground submarine facility the US Navy started strengthening its own submarine fleet.

Bush’s Nuclear Technology Offer To Saudi Arabia Is Fundamentally Flawed

During the recent visit to Saudi Arabia President George W Bush talked about a possible civilian nuclear deal with the King Abdullah. Bush wants to help the kingdom develop nuclear power for medical and industrial uses in addition to generating electricity. Bush called Saudi Arabia a model of non-proliferation for the region clearly pointing out Iran which according to him is a major nuclear technology proliferator.

Iran has pursued numerous routes to acquire an indigenous nuclear fuel cycle capability to provide it with fissile material for weapons. Iran is going down the plutonium route through construction of a heavy water research reactor and a heavy water plant. It has conducted experiments to separate and purify plutonium. Iran also has pursued the ability to begin enrichment, thereby going down the uranium route to a bomb. It is building facilities to convert and enrich uranium. All of these efforts involved a dizzying array of cover stories and false statements. Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is real — an issue the Bush Administration takes — and believes the international community takes — very seriously.

Robert G. Joseph, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security speaking at the Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference in November 2005.

Offering Saudi Arabia nuclear technology for power generation is bit hard to justify given the enormous reserves of oil the kingdom has. Helping Saudi Arabia go nuclear won’t make Iran back down from its own nuclear program instead in could start a race among the Middle East nations to go nuclear which could lead to catastrophic consequences.

Voices of concern are loud in Washington where many seem unhappy especially because the involvement of Saudi nationals in the September 2001 attacks and because the Saudis have refused to increase the crude oil output even after repeated requests from Mr. Bush – the last one made during this very visit which was ‘politely’ rebuffed by the Saudis.

The situation is getting even more concerning since many Middle East nations have shown desires to acquire nuclear technology. Although these countries are asking for nuclear assistance ‘openly’ and seem to have no hidden nuclear program like the one Iran has still the situation could get worse given that peace has eluded the region for more many years. Most probably these countries would allow full inspection by the IAEA but having too many nuclear sites in such a sensitive region isn’t a pleasant scenario.

One also has to question President Bush’s motive to offer the deal at this time. The nuclear deal with India is in the doldrums and the deal with Russia is set to face some tough resistance in the US Congress. Since Mr. Bush is coming close to the end of his term most nations have started looking forward to the new administration and more importantly because of an imminent Democratic win in the November election.

It is hard to see what Mr. Bush seeks to achieve by providing Saudi Arabia with nuclear technology. As far as medical and industrial applications are concerned the machines can easily be imported from overseas. Andif Mr. Bush is looking to make the world a better place by pushing the Saudi’s to move over oil in favor of cleaner technologies then why not provide them assistance with solar and win energy instead. It seem that there is no scientific or industrial purpose of the deal and the strategic purpose, if any, evades me.