Iran, Israel, Turkmenistan: India Going Places In Search Of Energy

Trilateral talks for Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline have started again and construction work on this project will commence in 2009. India has joined the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline project construction for which is scheduled to start in 2010. India is also looking to get oil & gas from the Black Sea and Caspian sea through an Israeli pipeline.

All these developments show the desperation of the Indian government which is fighting the skyrocketing inflation. Energy import bill is swelling as the international crude oil prices are touching new high everyday. India with rapidly growing economy is looking for energy wherever it could find it.

Gas from Bangladesh seems a far fetched dream given the sour relations between the two countries because of the continuous infiltration of terrorists into India through the Indo-Bangladesh border. It would be difficult for the Indian government to escape international scrutiny if it overlooks the situation in Myanmar and forges an energy deal – it would be something similar to what China is doing in Sudan. Plus China commands a strategic hold over the region.

The Iran Pipeline Dilemma

The project which was conceptualized by the current IPCC chief, Rajender Pachauri, has been delayed several times due to various reasons. The project would supply natural gas from the South Pars gasfield in Iran on a 50-50 sharing basis between India and Pakistan and would supply 2.06 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

Participation of India in the project is essential for it to be a profitable one. Due to the US pressure India had to put the pipeline on the backburner but Iran threatened to include China if India wasn’t interested. This is the reason given for the resumption of the trilateral talks however India’s Petroleum Minister cites economic reasons for the same. Lack of consensus over the nuclear deal and the rising oil prices added with possibility of losing to China on the energy front, once again, made the government rejoin the trilateral talks.

Pricing of the gas and the transit fees in addition to the security threat from the Baluchistan Liberation Army are some of the tricky issues that the three parties are currently trying to solve. Transit fees increase the gas  price by 42% and given the history of attacks on Pakistan’s pipelines in the region, India is finding it difficult to go by the high price.

The TAPI Solution

India enjoys some leverage over this project. The Asian Development Bank has long been pitching for India’s participation in this pipeline since it is essential for the profitability of the project. Although India can have its way, to some extent, over the pricing of the gas but the threat of sabotage by Taliban is a serious issue one that hasn’t been dealt with yet.

The TAPI pipeline has the backing of the US government which happily presents it as an alternative to the IPI pipeline.  Moreover there is a low possibility of China nudging India out of this project give the friction between the two countries. The issue of contention between the two countries is the the East Turkestan Independence Movement which advocates for the establishment of an independent and self-governing Xinjiang. Currently the area is an autonomous region in China.

Oil Through Israeli Pipeline

India has been approached by Eliat-Ashkelon Pipeline Company to participate in a multi-billion dollar crude oil pipeline. The company once used to be a joint venture between Israel and Iran. Once this project is completed India would get access to the vast oil reserves of the Black Sea and Caspian Sea. India hasn’t had access to these reserves since heavy oil & gas carriers cannot  pass through the Suez  Canal.

This pipeline, although costlier, would be more secure than the other options. It would also open up oil reserves of the Algeria and Libya where the state-owned company ONGC has been trying to acquire oil fields. A pipeline through the region is preferable since it is a major choke point in global oil routes and would obviate the high shipping costs bringing down the oil import bill.

On the face of it India seems to have plenty of options to get the crucial energy supply for its booming economy but each of these option pose serious problems – economic, strategic or security related. India, being a big geo-political player and a huge consumer of energy, should take whatever legitimate leverage it could get to ensure a cheap, secure and uninterrupted energy supply.

India all set to complete the Nuclear Triad, To test ICBM

India is ready with its submarine-launched ballistic missiles and its final test could take place any day now. The nuclear tipped missiles which were developed under the Sagarika project have been codenamed ‘K-15′. The K-15 has a 700km range same as that of Agni-1 which is already a part of the Indian Army. The K-15s will be deployed on indigenously developed nuclear powered submarines. The integration of the missiles with the submarines would be complete within the next three years.

India has been on a ‘defense equipment shopping spree’ since the Kargil conflict with Pakistan in 1999; India has acquired defense hardware worth $10 billion in the last eight years and will be spending another $25 billion in the next five.

Navy

Apart from the indigenous submarine program India has also given orders for the French made Scorpenes which will be with the Indian Navy by 2012. Add to that a Russian aircraft carrier, Admiral Gorshkov, which will come bundled with about 16 MiG-29K fighter jets for a price tag of over $2 billion. India had been waiting for Gorshkov for a very long since it currently has only one carrier, INS Viraat which is expected to be decommissioned in 2012. India has also initiated a $750 million project to manufacture a heavy aircraft carrier at home which will also be ready by 2012.

In the past the Indian Navy had, at most, only one aircraft carrier at its disposal and it was rightly feared that the Navy would lose crucial time in sending the carrier from Arabian Sea to Bay of Bengal (or vice versa) in case of an attack form either Pakistan or China. Now they would have two carriers plus the nuclear powered submarines. In addition the Navy has also inducted the nuclear warhead capable supersonic cruise missile Brahmos.

Air Force

The Indian Air Force (IAF) will the biggest piece of the pie. In what is being called the ‘Mother of all Deals’, the Air Force will be acquiring 126 fighter aircrafts for about $10 billion which will replace its aging fleet of MiG-21s. Some of the contenders for this mega deal are Mirage 2000-5 (France), F-16 and F-18 (USA), Gripen (Sweden) and MiG-29 (Russia). Apart from buying fighter jets from other countries, India has also been developing its own fighter jet called Tejas which is in testing & development stage.

Defense scientists are ready to test India’s first beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missile Astra. The scientists hope to integrate the missile with the aircraft soon and conduct tests later this year. The Air Force will be looking to replace the more expensive air-to-air missiles like the French-made Matra Super 530D, Russian-made AA-12 Adder and Israeli-made Python and Derby from its Sukhoi-30MKI and Mirage-2000s.

Army

Army has in its arsenal the mightiest of India’s all missiles, the Agni. The Army having inducted the Prithvi-1 (Range: 150 km), Agni-1 (Range: 700 km) and the Agni-2 (Range: 2,000 km+) is now planning a third test of the Agni-3 missile which has a range of 3,500 km, the test would take place later this year. Indian scientists, in addition to working on increasing Agni-3’s range by another 1,500 kms, is also working on Agni-4 which will have a range of 6,000 kms.

With Agni-4 India would join the club of countries with intercontinental ballistic missiles or ICBMs. It is believed that India was under pressure from the US not to increase the range of its missiles but since the talks of the Indo-US nuclear deal have started Indian government has got a shot in the arm and is looking to take the next step in weapons development.

With India on the fast lane to become an economic super power it also needs to comprehend its economic development with advancements in military capabilities. And with an unstable neighborhood it becomes imperative for India to have a strong response mechanism against any possible future eventualities.

Republic Of India Turns 58; Republic Day Parade Coverage

India celebrates its 59th Republic Day on Saturday. It was on January 26, 1950, that the Constitution of India came into force and the country declared itself a Republic. The date was officially chosen as Republic Day because it was on January 26, 1930, that the Indian National Congress symbolically declared Poorna Swaraj, or complete independence from Britain.

The Parade ceremony commenced with the Prime Minister laying wreath at the Amar jawan Jyoti at India Gate, the war memorial for the Immortal Soldier. After observing a two minute silence the prime Minister & the Chiefs of the three divisions of the the Indian Armed Forces proceeded towards the main parade area where they received the President Pratibha Patil & Chief Guest the French president Nicolas Sarkozy. The dignitaries then proceeded towards the main dais where President Patil unfurled the national flag amidst the tune of the national anthem, Jana Gana Mana. This was followed by the customary 21 gun salute.

Next, the highest peacetime military honors, The Ashok Chakra, were awarded posthumously to Col Vasant Venugopal (officer of 9 Marathas) – Under his command, the battalion killed nine foreign terrorists in Uri Sector of Jammu and Kashmir on July 31, 2007; Captain R Harshan (2 Paramilitary Special Forces) at 25, he became the youngest Ashok Chakra winner in India’s history – He fought bravely during an operation in Kashmir last year & killed two terrorists before succumbing to his injuries in Kashmir; Naib Subedar Chunni Lal – He faced the enemy bravely & killed three terrorists in the Kupwara sector in June last year.

Following this the Parade began with a fly past by four Mi-7 helicopters which flew in an inverted wineglass formation unfurling the national tricolour as well as those of the three defence services. The parade was led by General Officer Commanding Major-General K J S Oberoi. The Army showcased its impressive armory before the nation. The most attractive ones being the indigenously developed frontline T-90 battle tanks, the Indian version of BrahMos, the nuclear capable short range surface-to-surface missile Dhanush and the nuclear capable IRBM Agni-3 missiles which made its maiden appearance at this year’s Republic Day parade.

The awesome show of the armed services’ armory was followed by marching contingents. The army contingent included personnel drawn from Punjab Regiment, Grenadiers Regiment, Rajputana Regiment, Sikh Light Infantry, Assam Regiment, Mahar Regiment, 8-Gorkha Rifles and the Territorial Army. The Camel mounted Band and Contingent of the Border Security Force was the main attraction & drew cheers from the thousands assembled.

This was followed by tableaux from 26 states and Central Ministries and Departments will present the varied historical, architectural and cultural heritage of the country. They will also showcase country’s progress in different fields. Tableaux of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Railways and the Central Public Works Department focussed on various aspects of the Indian Independence movement. Haryana’s tableau depicted the scene of of thousands of women and children jumping into a well in a bid to save themselves from the Britishers who completely destroyed Rohnat village in Hisar district.

Eighteen of the 22 children selected for the National Bravery Awards 2007 also participated in the parade riding on caparisoned elephants. 4 have got the award posthumously. An ex-servicemen’s contingent and 13 Param Vir Chakra and Ashok Chakra awardees participated in the parade as four teams of the army band provided music for the march.

At the end of the Parade the Jaanbaz, the motorcycle display by the Border Security Force became the center of attraction. It consisted of 170 riders on 34 motorcycles performing Border Man Salute, ladder balancing, parallel bar, human pyramid, Guldasta Safari and Flag March. They performed breathtaking stunts in a synchronised and synergistic display of mind, body and machine coordination.

The grand finale of the parade was spectacular IAF’s flypast led by MI-26 and Advanced Light Helicopters followed by Big Boy Formation comprising an IL-76, two AN-32 and two Dorniers. Following this 5 Jaguars amazed the audience with their awesome Arrow Head Formation. But that was just the start of the fly past, with a thunderous sound came 5 MiG-29 aircrafts. The final jewel in the Republic Day’s parade were the 3 Sukhoi MKI which roared in the sky in the breath taking Trishul formation.

The ceremony culminated with the National Anthem and release of balloons.

Although it has been so many years and the overall pattern & the composition of the parade remains the same year after year still almost everybody wakes up early this day & waits anxiously for the parade to begin. I love watching the Parade because of the discipline with which the soldiers conduct themselves. At the end of the Parade thousands of people ran to their terraces to catch a glimpse of the Air Force’s crown jewels. And this time it was even more special since the Sukhois flew much closer to the ground

Iraq War: Has America Compromised Its Security For Oil & Israel?

Most people would agree that there were much better ways to tackle the ‘Iraq Problem’ and I believe the same. But I don’t believe that the Bush administration has learned anything from their experience in Iraq. Nonetheless it would be in US’ own interest if they don’t repeat their mistakes as far as the Iran issue goes.

It’s strange how easily (in comparison to US’s ‘endeavor’ to solve the Iraq crisis) the European Union tackled Libya & worked out a compromise whereby both the parties got somewhat equal benefits. Libya had acquired the nuclear technology which could have given them a nuclear warhead in a matter of few years. The EU offered Libya incentives which were vital for sanctions stricken country & they got a positive result in matter of few months.

One would argue that Muammar Gaddafi was much easier to deal with as compared to Saddam Hussein but USA & its allies could certainly have done better with some more diplomacy. But may be Bush noticed that there wasn’t oil to be had in Libya so he wasn’t much interested in any ‘adventures’ there.

Same was the case with North Korea. The Communist nation had apparently acquired the missile technology by which it could have hit America’s west coast but still North Korea was ‘overlooked’ and Iraq was attacked although it hadn’t had tested any missiles for quite a few years (no doubt Saddam had missiles that could have reached Israel). It is another thing that Bush couldn’t have attacked North Korea even if he had wanted to since China & Russia would have objected to any military action in their ‘backyard’.

But Iraq was a ‘natural’ target – having world’s third largest oil reserves & a major Arab power against Israel. The reasons were strong & the prize of a then looking sure short victory were more than excellent. Dossiers with fake intelligence were made – one even saying that Saddam could get his missiles ready in 45 minutes to attack Israel. Countries with dubious past records relating to terrorism (Pakistan & Saudi Arabia) were made allies and Iraq was prioritized over the war against Taliban & Al Qaida in Afghanistan.

Things didn’t go as planned in Iraq. Al Qaida, who wouldn’t have dared to step in Iraq has Saddam been the in charge, are now running the ‘show’, filling minds & hearts of people with hatred & abhorrence for their own fellow citizens. US military is suffering more than it has since the Vietnam War. But still Congress is happily financing the war thinking that the oil would come soon & a victory would silent the enemies of Israel.

America has put itself in a very difficult state wherein neither can it leave Iraq nor is it finding any headway in suppressing the growing violence. A troop withdrawal now would be an even harder blow for the already weakened image of America and it would lose any hope of getting a part of Iraq’s vast oil reserves add to it the danger of the militants getting control over the oil fields driving oil prices to unbelievable levels. Not to mention the view shared by many analysts that the overall terror threat has greatly increased.

Maybe in the coming years Bush would look back & realize his mistake of the way in which he tackled Iraq but I think that would be expecting a bit too much from him.

Congress & Voters Slept While Bush Destroyed America

No offence but it has been four years since the start of one of the most unpopular wars in the history & still nothing has changed. Initially there were thousands opposing the war but as the time went by the number grew to millions. Now almost the whole nation is opposed to the war but still nothing is being done to undo one of the biggest & bloodiest mistakes in US history.

George W. Bush fooled every one, be it his fellow citizens who had trusted their commander-in-chief or the allies who saw him as a friend. Bush & his administration told lies upon lies to make up a false case against Iraq by accusing it of sponsoring terrorism against the United States. Bush talked of Iraq’s Liberation but today Iraq is being plagued by the presence of militants that countries like Syria & Saudi Arabia are sending in to attack the US army.

Had Saddam been in power today we would have never allowed any insurgents coming from Saudi Arabia or Syria to step into his country with Iranian weapons in hand & spreading terrorism. There are more militants in Iraq now than they were before & now Iraq is a bigger threat to US interests than ever before. Earlier there was a man who was feared by all but now that Saddam has gone and the efforts of the US government to bring peace & order to the region have failed, the insurgents have cast the web of terror over Iraq which has engulfed the Americans as well.

But Bush isn’t the only one to be blame. This all could have been stopped four years back when Bush was preparing the false case against Iraq branding it as the home of international terrorism. Osama Bin Laden is currently sitting thousands of miles away on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border but still there are more American troops in Iraq than in Afghanistan.

Four years back there was a sudden change in American policy, bringing Laden to justice became secondary to the invasion of Iraq – nobody stopped him. The Congress happily funded the war (& is still doing it) dreaming about the billions of gallons of oil & seeing USA emerging as a major power in the Middle East which would have been beneficial to Israel as well.

America trusted this man not once but twice but I still fail to see the basis of this trust. The man never got in the first place – nobody cared to speak (the result of which the world is witnessing). But the surprise of the century was the re-election. It is completely beyond the understanding of a human mind why would the American people vote for Bush. It is astonishing that Bush actually won the second election even though millions opposed his policies. I would certainly want to know the reasons on basis of which people voted for Bush.

In every debate, the candidates talk about getting the troops out & ending the war but what have they done in the last four years. Nobody did anything to stop Bush from going to war or taking irrational decisions. How can a president justify important decisions like going to war by saying that God came to his dream telling him he was doing the right thing. If this is the way Bush takes decisions we should pray that he never sleeps because it would be disastrous for the whole world if Bush gets a dream of ‘his’ god telling him to nuke Russia.

It’s Payback Time For Bush

Tony Blair has resigned and now he’s off to the Middle East, hopefully to solve the Israel-Palestine issue. Blair was successful in bringing peace to Northern Ireland and he seems to be the right person to find a way out to improve the ever degrading situation.

Blair ended up getting this job due to his allegiance to President Bush. The ‘Bush Affect’ earned him foes in his own party; popularity rating dropped, questions were asked not just about his decision to take Britain to war but also domestic issues like health care.

Blair who was once called the ‘new face’ of Britain now carried a tarnished one himself. Blair represented the new & young of Britain when he came to office ten years ago. But it’s astonishing how one decision can blemish one’s legacy. Bush asked for support and Blair obliged not knowing where this ‘friendship’ would take him.

Now it’s Blair time. Blair has always wanted and worked for solving the Middle East Crisis and bringing peace to the region and its people. He was one of the first leaders to propose the two-state solution. Blair has shown that he has the will & the patience to work out peace when the world has lost hope & most leaders try to avoid the hard work.

Tony Blair will do any thing & everything to bring peace to the Middle East so that he could make a name for himself in history. He would certainly see this as an opportunity to cleanse his tarnished image. For this he would demand complete support from President Bush and it would be difficult for Bush to say no to him since Blair gave him full support in the War against Terrorism.

Blair might even force the President to rethink his policies and go slow as far as sanctions on the Palestinian people are concerned. Blair has made it clear that for him the common people come first and that he wants the people of both sides to feels safe & secure.

Bush made Blair change his policies and it would be interesting to see if Blair succeeds in doing the same to Bush. The positive thing for Bush, however, is that he has no legacy to be proud of or to work upon so no risk of it being tarnished.